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Feb 6, 2011

Super Sunday


It's Super Sunday, get the nachos, wings, couches, and excuses to call out of work Monday ready. What could be better? We have two historic franchises, the Pittsburgh Steelers and their 6 Super Bowl titles and the Green Bay Packers, their 3 Super Bowls, the cheeseheads and oh, yeah the home of the guy who the trophy is named after, Vince Lombardi.

Ironically, the game will take place in Dallas (the only team to ever beat the Steelers in the Super Bowl as well as the Green Bay Packers long-time rival dating back to the Ice Bowl). The coach of the Packers is actually from Western PA (Mike McCarthy) and comes from the coaching tree of Mike Holmgren--the last Packers to coach to win a Super Bowl with the Packers. As an aside to the game, it is also the herbal essences/head and shoulders game of the year with Clay Mathews of Green Bay battling Troy Polamalu of Pittsburgh.

Shampoo aside, this game will be decide in the trenches. You have the NFL transition to the 3-4 coming to light in this game where two of the very best at it will battle. The Steelers have been doing it since I was in diapers, and the Packers just in the last two seasons when Dom Capers was hired to be their defensive coordinator. Both teams possess dynamic, game-changing pass rushers as well as ball hawks in the secondary who make QBs think twice about lofting the ball up there.

When you take a look at the Steelers O-line, which was not very formidable in the first place, and you add in (well subtract) Pouncey from center and this could be a big time problem for the Steelers. All the talk is how Big Ben extends plays with his legs and pump fakes behind a line that is just good enough. Substitute Doug Legursky for Pouncey and that won't be so easy. Not to mention this is the best defense that Ben will have faced all season.

The Packers on the other hand have had their offensive line do the job over the last few months. Rodgers will not be able to escape as easily as he did against the Falcons earlier in the playoffs but his legs + his line vs. big ben's + his line and the advantage is Green Bay.

The X-Factors

Everyone knows who the main players are in this game...now lets take a look at the less heralded players who will have a tremendous impact on the outcome.

For Pittsburgh: Rashard Mendenhall RB
Yeah, remember him? With all the talk on Big Ben avoiding rushers and chucking it to a crossing Hines Ward or Mike Wallace deep or Antonio Brown's helmet you may forget that Mendenhall is actually their best player. He even ran over that tough Jets defense in the AFC championship game and could be the difference and morph himself from great player that no one talks about to a household name.

Green Bay's X-Factor: Jordy Nelson WR
Green Bay is not going to run the ball...nor do I believe they will try. They will do what the Patriots do against the Steelers. Spread 'em out and let it rip. Rodgers has the best passer rating of any QB in the league indoors..and the roof tonight will be closed. The Steelers can cover Greg Jennings he will be covered by Ike Taylor with an nice assist from Polamalu, Driver is not 100 percent, and the tight end is non-existant. However, Nelson is Rodgers' 3rd down guy who will be counted on to break free of either Ryan Clark, Bryant McFadden or William Gay.

What I See...

I really have no idea who will win this game. A part of me believes Green Bay is too finesse to beat Pittsburgh, but can you name that AFC team that has had the most success vs. the Steelers in the last few seasons? The New England Patriots. The Packers are built in that same mold, with the ability to spread out that defense with receivers that can play in the slot or outside and a QB that is at the very top of his game. It's really a tough call.

The Packers will not be able to run the ball at all on Pittsburgh, I know this, Pittsburgh knows this, Green Bay knows this...expect Rodgers to throw 40+ times in this game. In every single game this postseason, the team that has had more rushing yards has won. Go ahead, go check those stats. The Steelers will almost definitely rush for more yards than the Packers.

The Pick...

At the start of the year my pick was the Green Bay Packers as Super Bowl Champions. If you don't believe me, look! In my heart of hearts I want them to win, however my mind believes the Steelers will win. So what does a man do? Go with his heart or his mind? Well either way I covered my ass and told you I actually believe both teams will win so either I have great foresight or my mind is right.

The Green Bay Packers will win Super Bowl XLV. It is Aaron Rodgers' time.

Pittsburgh Steelers 13   Green Bay Packers 20
MVP: Aaron Rodgers QB Green Bay

Explanation:
There are these entities that I will call the football gods. You don't anger them. Ask the New England Patriots. You cheat the game? Well they will get you back. Go undefeated then have your hopes ripped away from you by the imaginary gum on David Tyree's helmet. The next year, Brady's ACL snaps. Then this year, they are treated to a great season only to be deFEETed by Rex Ryan and the Jets. The key in all of these is torture for pissing off the gods.

Now what's my point? Ben Roethlisberger. He "allegedly" sexually assaulted a girl this offseason and faced little penalty for what he did. Yeah, yeah, I know the case got thrown out. Did you also hear O.J. was innocent? The football gods will strike back tonight and Aaron Rodgers who shut his mouth during all the Favre fiasco, who never complained, who sat in the green room for hours on end while waiting to be picked way back in the 2005 draft now has his chance. The gods will reward him for his hard work, professional, and belt-flashing talent.

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